{"id":49338,"date":"2023-02-03T08:00:02","date_gmt":"2023-02-03T06:00:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.silutesnaujienos.lt\/lt\/?p=49338"},"modified":"2023-01-31T14:48:09","modified_gmt":"2023-01-31T12:48:09","slug":"ekonomistai-2022-aisiais-stebines-ukio-augimas-metu-pabaigoje-issikvepe-bns-apzvalga","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.silutesnaujienos.lt\/lt\/ekonomistai-2022-aisiais-stebines-ukio-augimas-metu-pabaigoje-issikvepe-bns-apzvalga\/","title":{"rendered":"Ekonomistai: 2022-aisiais stebin\u0119s \u016bkio augimas met\u0173 pabaigoje i\u0161sikv\u0117p\u0117 – BNS AP\u017dVALGA"},"content":{"rendered":"

J\u0173 vertinimu, paskutin\u012f pra\u0117jusi\u0173 met\u0173 ketvirt\u012f, palyginti su tuo pa\u010diu metu 2021-aisias, Lietuvos ekonomika gal\u0117jo \u0161iek tiek susitraukti. Dalis analitik\u0173 neatmeta, kad \u0161io laikotarpio pokytis i\u0161liko teigiamas ir siek\u0117 iki 0,9 procento.<\/p>\n

Du i\u0161 penki\u0173 \u0161alies ekonomist\u0173 mano, kad bendrasis vidaus produktas (BVP) spal\u012f-gruod\u012f, palyginti su tuo pat laiku 2021-aisiais, trauk\u0117si 0,2 proc. arba 0,4 proc., o trys teig\u0117, jog \u0161alies \u016bkis augo 0,3 proc., 0,8 proc. ar 0,9 procento.<\/p>\n

Tuo metu ketvirt\u0105j\u012f ketvirt\u012f, palyginti su tre\u010diuoju, vis\u0173 apklaust\u0173 ekspert\u0173 vertinimu, \u0161alies ekonomika nuosmukio nei\u0161veng\u0117.<\/p>\n

\u201eI\u0161skirtinis klest\u0117jimas, kur\u012f mat\u0117me pastaraisiais metais, baigiasi, bet be trenksmo. Tik\u0117tina, kad matysime metus trunkant\u012f atv\u0117sim\u0105, o v\u0117liau gr\u012f\u0161ime prie tvaraus augimo kelio\u201c, \u2013 BNS sak\u0117 \u201eSwedbank\u201c ekonomistas Nerijus Ma\u010diulis.<\/p>\n

Per visus 2022-uosius, analitik\u0173 teigimu, Lietuvos BVP augo 2,2\u20132,4 procento.<\/p>\n

2022-ieji stebino pozityviai<\/strong><\/p>\n

Pasak BNS apklaust\u0173 ekonomist\u0173, Lietuvos BVP augimas 2022 metais nustebino teigiamai, atsi\u017evelgiant \u012f tai, kad ekonomik\u0105 neigiamai veik\u0117 tiek Rusijos karin\u0117 invazija \u012f Ukrain\u0105, tiek ir energetini\u0173 preki\u0173 kain\u0173 \u0161uolis.<\/p>\n

Bendrov\u0117s \u201eINVL Asset Management\u201c ekonomist\u0117 Indr\u0117 Genyt\u0117-Pik\u010dien\u0117 sako, kad \u016bkio augimas pernai palaipsniui l\u0117t\u0117jo, ta\u010diau gerokai ma\u017eiau nei buvo nuog\u0105stauta prasid\u0117jus karui. Anot jos, galutinis met\u0173 rezultatas rodo, kad Lietuva negandas pasitiko su sveika pl\u0117tros inercija, didel\u0117mis finansin\u0117mis atsargomis, \u017eemomis tiek privataus, tiek\u00a0 valstybinio sektoriaus skolomis, o tai didino manevro laisv\u0119 ir atsparum\u0105.<\/p>\n

\u201eTeko atlaikyti eil\u0119 i\u0161bandym\u0173: akistata su karo kaimynyste, veikl\u0105 ir investicijas paraly\u017eiuojan\u010diu neapibr\u0117\u017etumu, energetikos kain\u0173 \u0161oku, prarastomis agresori\u0173 rinkomis, patogiais pigi\u0173 \u017ealiav\u0173 ir med\u017eiag\u0173 kanalais i\u0161 agresyvi\u0173 kaimyni\u0173, rekordine infliacija ir kylan\u010diomis pal\u016bkan\u0173 normomis\u201c, \u2013 BNS sak\u0117 ekonomist\u0117.<\/p>\n

\u201eLuminor\u201c banko atstovas \u017dygimantas Mauricas pastebi, kad Lietuvos BVP augimas pernai buvo spar\u010diausias Baltijos \u0161alyse.<\/p>\n

\u201eBe to, Lietuva vienintel\u0117 i\u0161 Baltijos \u0161ali\u0173 2022 metais i\u0161veng\u0117 technin\u0117s recesijos \u2013 Estijos ekonomika \u012f technin\u0119 recesij\u0105 paniro dar 2022 met\u0173 tre\u010di\u0105j\u012f ketvirt\u012f, o Latvijos, tik\u0117tina, \u2013 ketvirt\u0105j\u012f\u201c, \u2013 BNS sak\u0117\u00a0 \u017d. Mauricas.<\/p>\n

Pasak jo, pernai, kaip ir 2021 metais, pagrindiniai Lietuvos ekonomikos varikliai i\u0161liko pramon\u0117s bei auk\u0161t\u0173j\u0173 technologij\u0173 sektoriai. Be to, \u017eemas nedarbo lygis, spar\u010diai augantys atlyginimai bei rekordi\u0161kai i\u0161aug\u0119s gyventoj\u0173 skai\u010dius (labiausiai d\u0117l imigracijos i\u0161 Ukrainos ir Baltarusijos) leido palaikyti santykinai auk\u0161t\u0105 vidaus vartojimo lyg\u012f.<\/p>\n

I\u0161sikv\u0117pimo \u017eenklai met\u0173 pabaigoje \u2013 visose srityse<\/strong><\/p>\n

Nepaisant to, kad Lietuvos BVP augimas 2022 metais nustebino teigiamai, ekonomistai sako pastebintys, kad met\u0173 pabaigoje jis i\u0161sikv\u0117p\u0117, prigeso ne tik pagrindinis augimo lokomotyvas \u2013 pramon\u0117, bet ir kitos sritys.<\/p>\n

\u201eKetvirt\u0105j\u012f ketvirt\u012f ma\u017emenin\u0117 prekyba suma\u017e\u0117jo ma\u017edaug 2 proc., apdirbamosios gamybos apimtys susitrauk\u0117 3,5 procento. Gyventoj\u0173 perkamoji galia sumenko d\u0117l infliacijos, \u012fmoni\u0173 konkurencingumas apkarpytas d\u0117l energijos kain\u0173 \u0161oko ir spartaus darbo s\u0105naud\u0173 augimo\u201c, \u2013 teig\u0117 N. Ma\u010diulis.<\/p>\n

I.Genyt\u0117-Pik\u010dien\u0117 pastebi, jog energetikos kain\u0173 \u0161okas paveik\u0117 pramonei itin imlias tr\u0105\u0161\u0173, metal\u0173, statybini\u0173 med\u017eiag\u0173 ir kitas \u0161akas, be to, atl\u0117gus pandemijai, neigiamai suveik\u0117 ir baz\u0117s efektas reagent\u0173 gamyboje.<\/p>\n

Metin\u012f nuosmuk\u012f ketvirt\u0105j\u012f ketvirt\u012f prognozuojantis ekonomistas Aleksandras Izgorodinas sako, kad BVP augim\u0105 \u017eemyn labiausiai temp\u0117 pramon\u0117 \u2013 i\u0161augus energetikos kainoms, energijai imlios \u012fmon\u0117s smarkiai susima\u017eino gamybos apimtis. Visgi jis sako, kad yra pagrindo kalb\u0117ti apie geresn\u012f nei tikimasi ma\u017emenin\u0117s prekybos rezultat\u0105.<\/p>\n

\u201eKelis pastaruosius m\u0117nesius ger\u0117ja Lietuvos vartotoj\u0173 nuomon\u0117 apie savo finansus, ekonomin\u0119 ir darbo rinkos situacij\u0105 (…) Tod\u0117l manau, kad bendrai pa\u0117mus, Lietuvos BVP suma\u017e\u0117jimas ketvirt\u0105j\u012f 2022 met\u0173 ketvirt\u012f netur\u0117t\u0173 b\u016bti \u017eenklus\u201c, \u2013 sak\u0117 A. Izgorodinas.<\/p>\n

SEB banko ekonomistas Tadas Povilauskas teig\u0117, jog paskutini\u0173 m\u0117nesi\u0173 gamybinink\u0173 apklausos rodo, kad j\u0173 u\u017esakym\u0173 portfelis suma\u017e\u0117j\u0119s, o tai rei\u0161kia, kad ir pirm\u0105j\u012f \u0161i\u0173 met\u0173 ketvirt\u012f metinis gamybos pokytis bus neigiamas.<\/p>\n

Anot jo, kaip ir ankstesn\u012f ketvirt\u012f, teigiamos \u012ftakos BVP met\u0173 pabaigoje tur\u0117jo finans\u0173, IT, profesin\u0117 ir mokslin\u0117, apgyvendinimo ir maitinimo, pramog\u0173 veikla. Tuo metu statyb\u0173 sektoriaus ind\u0117lis \u012f BVP, pasak T. Povilausko, veikiausiai buvo neutralus, nes atlikt\u0173 darb\u0173 vert\u0117 paskutin\u012f ketvirt\u012f buvo minimaliai didesn\u0117 negu prie\u0161 metus.<\/p>\n

2023-iaisiais \u0161alies ekonomika stabtels<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ekonomistai vertina, jog 2023-aisiais Lietuvos ekonomika gali nei\u0161vengti susitraukimo, j\u0105 ir toliau veiks didelis neapibr\u0117\u017etumas d\u0117l karo Ukrainoje, prastesni pramon\u0117s rezultatai.<\/p>\n

\u201ePernai ruden\u012f Lietuvos ekonomikai 2023 metais prognozavome negil\u0173 slystel\u0117jim\u0105 \u012f recesijos teritorij\u0105 \u2013 0,5 proc. nuosmuk\u012f, \u0161iuo metu n\u0117ra reikalo \u0161ios prognoz\u0117s keisti. 2023 metai vis dar skendi dideliame neapibr\u0117\u017etume tiek d\u0117l geopolitini\u0173 veiksni\u0173, tiek d\u0117l kertini\u0173 pasaulio ekonomikos perspektyv\u0173\u201c, \u2013 teig\u0117 I. Genyt\u0117-Pik\u010dien\u0117.<\/p>\n

Anot jos, Lietuvos \u016bkio stabtel\u0117jimo prie\u017eastys objektyvios: karas pa\u0161on\u0117je, neapibr\u0117\u017etumas, kylan\u010dios pal\u016bkan\u0173 normos, kuklesnis verslo apetitas investicijoms ir pl\u0117trai, \u017eemas svarbi\u0173 eksporto rink\u0173 vartojimo apetitas, energetin\u0117 kriz\u0117 ir labai i\u0161augusios gamybos s\u0105naudos ir ma\u017e\u0117jantis likvidumas rinkoje.<\/p>\n

\u201eRezultatas i\u0161 dalies lemtas ir technini\u0173 matematini\u0173 veiksni\u0173 \u2013 pastaruosius por\u0105 met\u0173 Lietuvos ekonomika augo itin spar\u010diai, tad bus sunku pranokti \u0161iuos rekordinius rezultatus, kai i\u0161orin\u0117 aplinka kardinaliai pasikeitusi\u201c, \u2013 sak\u0117 I. Genyt\u0117-Pik\u010dien\u0117.<\/p>\n

\u017d. Maurico teigimu, Lietuvos BVP \u0161iais metais gali susitraukti 1,2 proc., o tai labiausiai lems prastesni pramon\u0117s rezultatai bei kylan\u010di\u0173 pal\u016bkan\u0173 norm\u0173 atv\u0117sintas nekilnojamojo turto sektorius.<\/p>\n

\u201eTebesit\u0119siantis neapibr\u0117\u017etumas bei vis dar auk\u0161ta infliacija taip pat stabdys vidaus vartojimo augim\u0105. Visgi 2024 metais laukiame itin spartaus atsigavimo \u2013 iki 5,5 procento\u201c, \u2013 teig\u0117 jis.<\/p>\n

Tuo metu A. Izgorodinas mano, kad Lietuvos BVP \u0161iemet augs 0,6 proc. Pasak jo, nepaisant sul\u0117t\u0117jimo, JAV vartojimas liks stiprus ir palaikys Lietuvos pramon\u0117s eksporto \u012f Vakar\u0173 Europ\u0105 apimtis.<\/p>\n

\u201eSuma\u017e\u0117jus duj\u0173 kainai \u012f vir\u0161\u0173 spar\u010diai kopia euro zonos vartotoj\u0173 pasitik\u0117jimas \u2013 jos gyventoj\u0173 ind\u0117liai bankuose yra 1,2 trln. eur\u0173 didesni nei prie\u0161 pat kovido prad\u017ei\u0105. 2023 met\u0173 prad\u017eioje m\u016bs\u0173 laukia euro zonos vartojimo at\u0161okimas, o ne nuosmukis. Gal\u0173 gale Kinijoje, pana\u0161u, baigiasi nulin\u0117s kovido politikos era, kas yra super pozityvu Lietuvai per eksport\u0105 \u012f Vakar\u0173 Europos rink\u0105\u201c, \u2013 teig\u0117 A. Izgorodinas.<\/p>\n

Pasak jo, antrasis pusmetis \u0161alies ekonomikai bus i\u0161\u0161\u016bki\u0173 metas, kai JAV panirs \u012f recesij\u0105, o tai tur\u0117s neigiam\u0105 poveik\u012f Lietuvai per eksport\u0105 \u012f Vakar\u0173 Europ\u0105.<\/p>\n

Autor\u0117 Erika Alonderyt\u0117-Kazlausk\u0117, Verslo naujien\u0173 skyrius<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

J\u0173 vertinimu, paskutin\u012f pra\u0117jusi\u0173 met\u0173 ketvirt\u012f, palyginti su tuo pa\u010diu metu 2021-aisias, Lietuvos ekonomika gal\u0117jo \u0161iek tiek susitraukti. Dalis analitik\u0173 neatmeta, kad \u0161io laikotarpio pokytis i\u0161liko teigiamas ir siek\u0117 iki 0,9 procento. Du i\u0161 penki\u0173 \u0161alies ekonomist\u0173 mano, kad bendrasis vidaus produktas (BVP) spal\u012f-gruod\u012f, palyginti su tuo pat laiku 2021-aisiais, trauk\u0117si 0,2 proc. arba 0,4 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":49339,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[47],"class_list":["post-49338","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-aktualijos","tag-pirmasis"],"yoast_head":"\nEkonomistai: 2022-aisiais stebin\u0119s \u016bkio augimas met\u0173 pabaigoje i\u0161sikv\u0117p\u0117 - BNS AP\u017dVALGA - \u0160ilut\u0117s naujienos<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.silutesnaujienos.lt\/lt\/ekonomistai-2022-aisiais-stebines-ukio-augimas-metu-pabaigoje-issikvepe-bns-apzvalga\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"lt_LT\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Ekonomistai: 2022-aisiais stebin\u0119s \u016bkio augimas met\u0173 pabaigoje i\u0161sikv\u0117p\u0117 - BNS AP\u017dVALGA - \u0160ilut\u0117s naujienos\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"J\u0173 vertinimu, paskutin\u012f pra\u0117jusi\u0173 met\u0173 ketvirt\u012f, palyginti su tuo pa\u010diu metu 2021-aisias, Lietuvos ekonomika gal\u0117jo \u0161iek tiek susitraukti. 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